ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To develop prediction models for severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) based on risk factors in preterm Thai infants to reduce unnecessary eye examinations in low-risk infants. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included preterm infants screened for ROP in a tertiary hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, between September 2009 and December 2020. A predictive score model and a risk factor-based algorithm were developed based on the risk factors identified by a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Validity scores, and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were reported. RESULTS: The mean gestational age and birth weight (standard deviation) of 845 enrolled infants were 30.3 (2.6) weeks and 1264.9 (398.1) g, respectively. The prevalence of ROP was 26.2%. Independent risk factors across models included gestational age, birth weight, no antenatal steroid use, postnatal steroid use, duration of oxygen supplementation, and weight gain during the first 4 weeks of life. The predictive score had a sensitivity (95% CI) of 92.2% (83.0, 96.6), negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.2% (98.1, 99.6), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) of 0.1. The risk factor-based algorithm revealed a sensitivity of 100% (94, 100), NPV of 100% (99, 100), and NLR of 0. Similar validity was observed when "any oxygen supplementation" replaced "duration of oxygen supplementation." Predictive score, unmodified, and modified algorithms reduced eye examinations by 71%, 43%, and 16%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our risk factor-based algorithm offered an efficient approach to reducing unnecessary eye examinations while maintaining the safety of infants at risk of severe ROP. Prospective validation of the model is required.
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To validate Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) criteria for Thai infants. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective review of infants receiving ROP screening during 2009-2020. METHODS: Baseline characteristics, clinical progression and final ROP outcomes were collected. G-ROP was applied to infants who met at least one of the following 6 criteria: birth weight (BW) below 1051 g, gestational age (GA) under 28 weeks, weight gain (WG) less than 120 g during postnatal day 10-19, WG less than 180 g during day 20-29, WG less than 170 g during day 30-39 and hydrocephalus. RESULTS: A total of 684 infants (boys, 53.4%) were included. Median (IQR) BW was 1200 (960-1470) grams and median GA was 30 (28-32) weeks. Prevalence of ROP was 26.6%, with 28 (4.1%) having type 1, 19 (2.8%) type 2 and, 135 (19.7%) having other ROP. Treatment was performed in 26 infants (3.8%). Sensitivity of G-ROP to include type 1, 2 or treatment-requiring ROP cases was 100% with 36.9% specificity, excluding 235 (34.4%) cases of unnecessary screening. To adjust for our setting of initial eye examination at 4 weeks' postnatal date, the last 2 criteria of G-ROP were replaced by the occurrence of grade 3 or 4 intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH). This modified G-ROP criteria yielded 100% sensitivity, 42.5% specificity and excluded 271 (39.6%) cases of unnecessary screening. CONCLUSION: G-ROP criteria can be applied to our hospital setting. Occurrence of IVH grade 3 or 4 was proposed as an alternative in modified G-ROP criteria.
